Does the Lowest Price Win Saudi Government Tenders?

Usually, but not always. Among awarded public competitions closing in 2025 with one winner and at least two compliant bids, the winner offered the lowest technically compliant price in 77.8% of them, down from 79.6% in 2024, according to NextBid analysis of Etimad award data. When a dearer offer won, it was a median 18.7% above the cheapest compliant one.

No single rule awards every tender to the lowest price. Technical compliance comes first, then the tender booklet's evaluation method decides: price alone among compliant offers, or a weighted score of quality and price, adjusted for preferences. Under the new law, which takes effect in early January 2027, evaluation criteria follow its new Implementing Regulations and the preference regulation. A tender offered before the new law takes effect stays under the current law unless the Minister of Finance decides to apply some of the new rules to it, so check that tender's booklet and announcements.

Does the cheapest compliant bidder usually win?

Yes, in about four competitions out of five, roughly three times as often as a random pick among compliant bidders would give. The fall from 2024 is larger than random variation but modest, not a trend, and borderline in each half of the year.

When the cheapest compliant bidder lost, the winning offer was a median 18.7% above it in 2025 (17.5% in 2024), and the middle half of those winners priced between 6.6% and 43.3% above.

Where does the cheapest offer win least often?

In large contracts and crowded competitions. The two patterns overlap, because larger contracts draw more bidders, and part of the crowding effect is arithmetic: a random pick between two compliant bidders is already the cheapest half the time.

By number of compliant offers, 2025

By winning offer value, 2025

Which activities follow the lowest price most closely?

The ten activities with the most public competitions closing in 2025:

Facilities operation and maintenance is the one activity with a clear fall from 2024. The fall in trade in new spare parts is borderline, and the other eight changes are within random variation.

What can make a higher price win?

The data compares offers as submitted, so it cannot show why a dearer offer won. These rules can change the order or the final price, and the booklet says which apply.

• Weighted scoring. Where the booklet weights quality against price, the best combined score wins. The current evaluation-criteria controls (2021), published on the Ministry of Finance website, make routine, simple supply a price-only contest.
• Preferences and local content. The current preference regulation gives local SMEs a 10% price preference on non-supply contracts outside the high-value scope, gives national products a 10% price preference in supply tenders, and weights high-value contracts other than supply 60% price to 40% local-content factors; the top scorer wins only if its price is within 10% of the lowest technically qualified offer, unless the booklet states a higher limit. The new law, which takes effect in early January 2027, keeps priority for local SMEs, local content and listed companies and moves the details to a new preference regulation; the current one applies until replaced.
• Abnormally low offers. Under the current law, an offer cannot be excluded for low price unless it is 25% or more below the estimated cost and the prevailing market prices, and then only after the committee requests a written breakdown and reasons from the bidder. The new law keeps the 25% threshold but measures it against the estimated cost alone.
• Negotiation. If the best price is too high against the benchmark, the entity negotiates a reduction. Under the current law that means a price significantly above market prices or above the appropriation; under the new law, a price above the estimated cost plus a reserve percentage.

What does this mean for your bid?

• Go or no-go. The cheapest compliant offer wins most awards between compliant bidders, so bid when you can reach a sustainable lowest compliant price, or when the booklet rewards what you do better, such as local content. In the 2025 competitions compared, the cheapest won 91.4% of those with two compliant offers but 61.4% of those with more than ten, so relying on price alone is less safe in crowded fields.
• Pricing. Build the price from cost and test it against past awards, as our guide to using public award results to price a bid explains. Winning falls off quickly with price rank: the winner was the second-cheapest compliant bidder in 15.0% of the 2025 competitions compared and the third-cheapest in 3.9%. Do not undercut blindly, since under the current law an abnormally low offer, 25% or more below the estimated cost and the prevailing market prices, draws a written request for its breakdown. The new law, which takes effect in early January 2027, measures the same 25% against the estimated cost alone.
• Proposal quality. An offer that fails technical evaluation never reaches the price contest; see our analysis of how many bids fail technical evaluation. Then check the price list for arithmetic errors and the booklet for its evaluation method before setting the price.

About the data

• Source and period. NextBid analysis of Etimad award data for public competitions with a bid deadline from 1 January to 31 December 2025, compared with 2024, with awards as recorded up to 9 October 2026. Each competition counts in the year of its bid deadline.
• Competitions compared. Awarded public competitions with one winner and at least two technically compliant bids: 86.3% of awarded public competitions in 2025 (85.4% in 2024). Competitions with several winners (2.2%) or fewer than two compliant bids (11.5%) are left out.
• Prices as submitted. Offers are compared as submitted, before preferences, corrections or negotiation. If a cheaper compliant offer was set aside later, the true share may be higher. Cancelled and re-tendered competitions are not visible.
• Provisional and rounded. Award recording for 2025 is incomplete: 82.4% of 2025 public competitions have an award on record, against 88.9% for 2024. Shares are rounded to one decimal, and a change from 2024 counts as real only when clearly larger than random variation; borderline changes are flagged.

Frequently asked questions

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